Inter-patch movement in an experimental system: the effects of life history and the environment

An important process for the persistence of populations subjected to habitat loss and fragmentation is the dispersal of individuals between habitat patches. Dispersal involves emigration from a habitat patch, movement between patches through the surrounding landscape, and immigration into a new suitable habitat patch. Both landscape and physical condition of the disperser are known to influence dispersal ability, although disentangling these effects can often be difficult in the wild. In one of the first studies of its kind, we used an invertebrate model system to investigate how dispersal success is affected by the interaction between the habitat condition, as determined by food availability, and life history characteristics (which are also influenced by food availability). Dispersal of juvenile and adult mites (male and female) from either high food or low food natal patches were tested separately in connected three patch systems where the intervening habitat patches were suitable (food supplied) or unsuitable (no food supplied). We found that dispersal success was reduced when low food habitat patches were coupled to colonising patches via unsuitable intervening patches. Larger body size was shown to be a good predictor of dispersal success, particularly when the intervening landscape is unsuitable. Our results suggest that there is an interaction between habitat fragmentation and habitat suitability in determining dispersal success: if patches degrade in suitability and this affects the ability to disperse successfully then the effective connectance across landscapes may be lowered. Understanding these consequences will be important in informing our understanding of how species, and the communities in which they are embedded, may potentially respond to habitat fragmentation

A review of the literature and knowledge of standards and certification systems in agricultural production and farming systems (NRI working paper series on sustainability standards No. 2)

In this review we closely follow the terms of reference set by RESOLV, with respect to the standards summarised below in Table 1.2, specifically: organic, GlobalGAP, Fairtrade, the Sustainable Agriculture Network standard (known as SAN, and sometimes referred to as the Rainforest Alliance (RA) standard), and Utz Certified), plus two newer standards – the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) and the Roundtable on Responsible Soy (RTRS) standards. In most of the text the discussion focuses on the first five of these standards according to the availability of literature and the length of time that the standards have been in operation (RTRS only published its standard in June 2010 with its first certification in June 2011; RSPO Principles were agreed in 2005 followed by the criteria and indicators agreed 2007 and the first certification took place in 2008). So in section 1 we focus on the market for certified agricultural products exploring trends in supply and demand including reflections on how consumers and companies influence these trends. In section 2 we begin by discussing the evolving methodologies in use to assess impacts of standards and standards systems. Informed by this methodological understanding, we provide a summary of key findings from a variety of studies on particular standards or groups of standards in agriculture. In section 3 we consider the relative effectiveness of certification systems both in relation to each other and compared to other approaches to improving ‘sustainability performance’. Following this in section 4 we discuss communication of the standards to the public and public awareness of different standards. Here we explore the complex relationship with public regulation and also consider ways other than standards which may facilitate improvements. The concluding section summarises the key findings and presents our analysis of the gaps in knowledge that exist. We propose a research agenda that will enhance our understanding of standards and certification systems operating in agriculture, particularly with respect to how they meet their objectives and broader impacts, intended and unintended

Age and size at maturity: sex, environmental variability and developmental thresholds

In most organisms, transitions between different life-history stages occur later and at smaller sizes as growth conditions deteriorate. Day and Rowe recently proposed that this pattern could be explained by the existence of developmental thresholds (minimum sizes or levels of condition below which transitions are unable to proceed). The developmental-threshold model predicts that the reaction norm of age and size at maturity will rotate in an anticlockwise manner from positive to a shallow negative slope if: (i) initial body size or condition is reduced; and/or (ii) some individuals encounter poor growth conditions at increasingly early developmental stages. We tested these predictions by rearing replicated populations of soil mites Sancassania berlesei (Michael) under different growth conditions. High-food environments produced a vertical relationship between age and size at maturity. The slope became increasingly shallow as food was reduced. By contrast, high food in the maternal environment reduced the slope of the reaction norm of age and size at maturity, whereas low food increased it. Overall, the reaction norm of age and size at maturity in S. berlesei was significantly nonlinear and differed for males and females. We describe how growth conditions, mother's environment and sex determine age and size at maturity in S. berlesei

Mega-trends in the Southern African region

This study aims to describe recent developments in the Southern African region by documenting a set of mega-trends defining social, economic, political and environmental conditions. It includes analysis of the recent past as well as projections of future trends. To the extent possible, the report is based on information from 2010 to the present, except in some cases where more recent information was not available. The purpose of this analysis is to get a snapshot of current conditions in the Southern African region and the dynamics that generated them, to inform the design and implementation of investments to secure climate-resilient agricultural livelihoods in the region. The study goes beyond simply tracing trends, however, and provides guidance on how the information can best be used in making plans for the future. The mega-trend analysis gives insights into forces that will shape the future but does not provide predictions of the future. Humans are typically very linear thinkers and tend to look at trends from the past and project them forwards into the future, and we often fall into the trap of thinking that the future is defined by what has happened in the past. There is considerable uncertainty over how several of these mega-trends will play out in the near future, with the possibility of major disruptions and changes on the horizon. This can be seen quite clearly in the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic which is still unfolding, and which is already disrupting expectations of future conditions. This uncertainty of future conditions greatly complicates decision-making today. To address this complication, the development of scenarios to identify a range of plausible futures is an important tool for decision-makers. In the final section of the report we give examples of recent scenario work in the region to illustrate how the analysis of megatrends and their uncertainties can be useful in strategic decision-making under uncertainty

Organic farming enhances parasitoid diversity at the local and landscape scales

1. The magnitude of the benefits derived from organic farming within contrasting managed landscapes remains unclear and, in particular, the potential scale-dependent response of insect parasitoids is relatively unexplored. Identifying the scale at which parasitoids are affected by organic farming will be an important step to enhance their conservation. 2. We sampled tachinid parasitoids at the centre and margin of arable and grassland fields on paired organic and conventional farms located in landscapes with different proportions of organic land. A total of 192 fields were sampled in two biogeographical regions of the UK. 3. We found that the positive effect of organic farming on tachinid parasitoid diversity can be observed at multiple spatial scales. At the local scale, we found higher abundance and species richness of tachinid parasitoids on organic than on conventional farms and on field margins than on field centres. At the landscape scale, the diversity of tachinids was higher in landscapes with higher proportions of organic land. At both scales, the positive effect of organic farming was clear for arable fields, while it was almost neutral for grasslands. 4. Synthesis and applications. Any attempt to enhance parasitoid diversity in agricultural landscapes needs to consider the local management in relation to the habitat type, location within the field and agricultural management in the surrounding landscape. To restore parasitoid diversity, the promotion of organic agriculture should aim to increase both the total extent of organic farming and the connectivity of individual farms. As the benefits of organic farming to biodiversity clearly spread beyond individual farm boundaries, any assessment of organic farming should consider these positive externalities

Eco‐evolutionary dynamics in response to selection on life‐history

Understanding the consequences of environmental change on ecological and evolutionary dynamics is inherently problematic because of the complex interplay between them. Using invertebrates in microcosms, we characterise phenotypic, population and evolutionary dynamics before, during and after exposure to a novel environment and harvesting over 20 generations. We demonstrate an evolved change in life-history traits (the age- and size-at-maturity, and survival to maturity) in response to selection caused by environmental change (wild to laboratory) and to harvesting (juvenile or adult). Life-history evolution, which drives changes in population growth rate and thus population dynamics, includes an increase in age-to-maturity of 76% (from 12.5 to 22 days) in the unharvested populations as they adapt to the new environment. Evolutionary responses to harvesting are outweighed by the response to environmental change (~ 1.4 vs. 4% change in age-at-maturity per generation). The adaptive response to environmental change converts a negative population growth trajectory into a positive one: an example of evolutionary rescue. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment

Active blood parasite infection is not limited to the breeding season in a declining farmland bird

Avian blood parasites can have significant impacts on adult breeding birds but studies of parasitism outside the breeding season are rare, despite their potentially important implications for host–parasite dynamics. Here we investigate temporal dynamics of blood parasite infection in adult yellowhammers Emberiza citrinella. We screened blood samples collected between December and April of 2 consecutive winters using PCR. We found a high prevalence of both Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites, with a mean prevalence of 50% across 2 winters. Prevalence of both parasites was higher during the second, colder winter of the study. Temporal trends differed between the 2 genera, suggesting that chronic Haemoproteus infections gradually disappear throughout the winter but that Leucocytozoon infections exhibit a relapse during late winter, possibly coincident with reduced food availability. Our results highlight the difference in temporal dynamics between 2 blood parasite genera infecting the same host population and emphasize the need for accurate assessment of infection status at appropriate time periods when examining impacts of, and associations with, blood parasite infection. We suggest that further research should investigate the implications of over-winter infection for birds’ physiology, behavior, and survival

Plasticity is a locally adapted trait with consequences for ecological dynamics in novel environments

Phenotypic plasticity is predicted to evolve in more variable environments, conferring an advantage on individual lifetime fitness. It is less clear what the potential consequences of that plasticity will have on ecological population dynamics. Here, we use an invertebrate model system to examine the effects of environmental variation (resource availability) on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in two life history traits—age and size at maturation—in long-running, experimental density-dependent environments. Specifically, we then explore the feedback from evolution of life history plasticity to subsequent ecological dynamics in novel conditions. Plasticity in both traits initially declined in all microcosm environments, but then evolved increased plasticity for age-at-maturation, significantly so in more environmentally variable environments. We also demonstrate how plasticity affects ecological dynamics by creating founder populations of different plastic phenotypes into new microcosms that had either familiar or novel environments. Populations originating from periodically variable environments that had evolved greatest plasticity had lowest variability in population size when introduced to novel environments than those from constant or random environments. This suggests that while plasticity may be costly it can confer benefits by reducing the likelihood that offspring will experience low survival through competitive bottlenecks in variable environments. In this study, we demonstrate how plasticity evolves in response to environmental variation and can alter population dynamics—demonstrating an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in a complex animal moderated by plasticity in growth